The stakes couldn't be higher as the Brewers and Cubs face off in a critical Game 4 of the NLDS—the series teeters on a knife-edge, and every pitch counts. Brewers third baseman Caleb Durbin summed up the team's mindset perfectly: “We felt really dialed in coming into this game. Everyone was confident and determined. Our goal was to close out the series tonight, but we know there are still a few opportunities left to seal the deal. Of course, we’d love to finish it tomorrow rather than drag it into a decisive Game 5, but it’s all about taking it one pitch at a time.”
But here’s where it gets controversial: Historically, teams that lose the first two games on the road in a Division Series (under the modern 2-2-1 game format) rarely mount a full comeback. Out of 34 such cases through 2024, only 14 managed to even force a Game 4, and just 5 of those advanced to a winner-takes-all Game 5. Of that handful, only 3 completed the comeback by winning Game 5. How much should the Cubs believe in beating these odds?
Key details for fans: The decisive Game 5, brought to you by Booking.com, is scheduled for Saturday at 8 p.m. ET/7 p.m. CT and will be broadcast on TBS, TruTV, and HBO Max. Ticket availability for Cubs fans and Brewers enthusiasts is live now.
Cubs center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong reminded everyone that “there’s still plenty of baseball left to be played,” reinforcing the team’s resilience despite the series deficit.
The pitching matchup for Game 4 is a replay of the NLDS opener: Milwaukee will send right-hander Freddy Peralta to the mound, while Chicago counters with lefty Matthew Boyd, both pitching on their regular rest days.
When, where, and how to watch?
Game 4 kicks off at 8:08 p.m. Central Time at Chicago’s storied Wrigley Field. Fans nationwide can watch the spectacle on TBS, TruTV, or stream via HBO Max. For those outside the U.S., most games are accessible live on MLB.TV, except in Canada, where exclusive English-language coverage is provided by Sportsnet, while French-speaking Canadians can watch through TVA Sports and RDS.
Starting pitchers in focus
- Chicago Cubs: Matthew Boyd (14-8, 3.21 ERA) was announced as the Game 4 starter. Boyd, a seasoned lefty, pitched on short rest in Game 1 but struggled somewhat, giving up six runs (two earned) in just two outs during a 9-3 loss to the Brewers. This time, sitting on four days' rest, Boyd hopes to regain his edge, especially playing at home where he was outstanding in the regular season with a 12-1 record and 2.51 ERA over 15 starts. He earned All-Star honors this season, thanks to a strong start to the year, with a 2.20 ERA in his first 20 outings.
Lineups to watch
- Cubs: Since facing a right-handed pitcher, the lineup remains the same as in Games 1 and 3. Michael Busch leads off, having already smashed two first-inning home runs this series.
- Michael Busch, 1B
- Nico Hoerner, 2B
- Kyle Tucker, DH
- Seiya Suzuki, RF
- Ian Happ, LF
- Carson Kelly, C
- Pete Crow-Armstrong, CF
- Dansby Swanson, SS
- Matt Shaw, 3B
- Brewers:
- Christian Yelich, DH
- Jackson Chourio, LF
- William Contreras, C
- Brice Turang, 2B
- Andrew Vaughn, 1B
- Caleb Durbin, 3B
- Sal Frelick, RF
- Blake Perkins, CF
- Joey Ortiz, SS
The bullpens and injury updates
- Cubs: Kyle Tucker has been restricted to the DH role since returning from a left calf strain that sidelined him for over three weeks in September. Although the coaching staff hasn’t ruled out playing Tucker in the outfield again, there is no rush since Seiya Suzuki has been solid in right field during the postseason, and Tucker is still regaining full running strength.
- Right-hander Cade Horton, sidelined with a right rib fracture and on the 15-day injured list, threw off the mound recently and might ramp up bullpen sessions soon. However, activating him for a potential Game 5 is off the table for now; the Cubs are more likely to consider that move if they advance further.
Who's heating up and who's cooling off?
Cubs: Michael Busch has been on fire this postseason, hitting .300 with three homers and an eye-popping 1.114 OPS, including the historic feat of being the first player in MLB history to launch two leadoff homers in one postseason series. Nico Hoerner has been equally impressive, batting .391 in playoffs after a solid .333 September. Conversely, Ian Happ and Matt Shaw have struggled at the plate with very few hits.
Brewers: William Contreras has maintained consistency, reaching base in seven of his last eight postseason games and posting a .343 OBP in this series. Yet Brice Turang and Sal Frelick have combined to go just 4-for-23, with Turang’s six strikeouts in 12 at-bats drawing concern, though it’s noteworthy that Frelick has remarkably avoided strikeouts.
What else should fans keep in mind?
- History shows that overcoming a 0-2 road deficit in a Division Series is a steep climb — only 14 teams forced a Game 4 out of 34 attempts, and fewer still completed the comeback. Will this playoff series follow the odds or defy them?
- The Cubs have been tough at home this postseason, winning three out of four games at Wrigley Field, building on a stellar 50-29 regular-season home record — a testament to the advantage the Friendly Confines could provide.
So here’s a question for you: Given the historical challenges and current performances, do you believe the Cubs can overcome the steep odds and pull off the comeback, or will the Brewers finally shut the door? Share your thoughts and let's spark a lively debate in the comments!
